Day-ahead electricity forecasts can help building operators schedule heating, ventilation, and other services around anticipated demand. Choosing a forecasting model also requires balancing accuracy with its forecast-time inputs, local training, and computational requirements. We benchmark statistical, machine-learning, recurrent neural-network, and pretrained TimesFM models for a university building. We use chronological validation and evaluate all configurations on the same 57 test days, comparing accuracy across workdays, weekends, and holidays alongside local fitting and forecasting time. Weather covariates use retrospective observations. TimesFM 3.0 with covariates achieves the lowest overall errors, reducing mean absolute error by approximately 43\% relative to weekly seasonal-naive forecasting. XGBoost remains competitive, although paired daily comparisons do not establish a clear mean-absolute-error advantage for TimesFM. TimesFM also performs strongly using only past electricity consumption. Adding covariates improves its holiday forecasts but slightly worsens workday and weekend forecasts, leaving overall mean absolute error almost unchanged. TimesFM requires no building-specific weight training, while XGBoost offers rapid local fitting and inference. The evaluated LSTM takes longer to fit without outperforming either approach. An exploratory historical evaluation reveals seasonal variation, while a separate weather-source comparison produces only small changes in the selected TimesFM configuration's accuracy. These results support pretrained TimesFM as a strong initial forecasting baseline for this building, with XGBoost as a competitive locally fitted alternative. Covariates are particularly useful when improved holiday forecasts justify the additional input preparation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12638
Humanoid robots possess the structural capability to traverse complex terrains. However, achieving stable t raversal without relying on perceived information remains challenging, particularly in complex environments. This paper introduces DAMP, a reinforcement learning framework aimed at achieving robust and naturalistic humanoid locomotion over challenging terrains, with the assumption that no perceived information is available. The framework leverages recurrent neural networks to capture temporal dependencies and implicitly infer privileged and other task-relevant latent information. By aligning the learned representations with the task objective, the method enables robust and goal-consistent policy learning. This end-to-end framework achieves transfer learning from simulation to real-world environments, demonstrating the proposed method's robustness and generalization capabilities. The video of the real-world demonstration can be found at the following link: this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11505
This study presents the Neuro-Memory Fuzzy Inference System (NeMeFIS), a hierarchical machine learning architecture that asymmetrically models acceleration and deceleration in car following behavior by integrating five human memory types procedural, working, episodic, semantic, and declarative. By linking external variables to memory functions via metaheuristics and validating them through factor and p-value analyses, NeMeFIS uncovers latent cognitive influences across Arterial, Collector, and Rural Highway corridors for different types of vehicles. Results from 54 different trained models emphasize cognitive thresholds shaped by driver perception limits and cognitive load. The trained NeMeFIS models outperform traditional statistical and conventional machine learning models in replicating realistic driving behavior, including comparisons with Linear Regression, ANFIS, and LSTM architectures. Fuzzy rule analysis reveals that declarative memory demands the highest rule, especially during deceleration, indicating complex braking decisions. Procedural memory drives acceleration, while semantic and declarative memory guide deceleration. Risk perception also emerges as a key factor, particularly on urban roads. Validated on both heterogeneous and homogeneous datasets, NeMeFIS offers a robust framework for modeling driver cognition. The findings support psychotherapeutic applications and the development of adaptive, human-like decision systems in Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) to enhance traffic safety.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11252
Collaborative perception extends the sensing range of autonomous vehicles, but its performance degrades when shared features arrive stale or incomplete. Most latency-robust methods compensate delayed collaborator features through flow-guided alignment or direct feature transport. In this work, we formulate asynchronous collaborative perception as temporal residual prediction. Our Temporal Residual Bottleneck keeps a deterministic pose-warped collaborator feature as a conservative anchor and uses a $\Delta t$-conditioned xLSTM to extract residual temporal evidence from the available history. A detector-facing residual bottleneck then applies only gated, regularized corrections before ego-side fusion, reducing the risk of overwriting reliable static structure when temporal correspondence is uncertain. Experiments on DAIR-V2X and OPV2V show that our method is especially effective under severe fixed/irregular delays and packet drops. On DAIR-V2X, the reported checkpoint trades a small amount of synchronized peak accuracy for better robustness under stronger communication degradation. Controlled diagnostics further indicate that direct feature transport has oracle headroom but can become unreliable when deployed without accurate correspondence. These results support temporal residual fusion as a practical alternative for asynchronous and incomplete collaborative perception. Code will be publicly released at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.10090
Few-shot meta-learning traditionally formulates task adaptation either as analytical gradient descent through unrolled computational graphs or as metric-based distance comparisons over flattened 1D fea- ture vectors, which either incur costly test-time backpropagation or discard native 2D spatial geometry. In this work, we propose METALEARNNCA, a decentralized framework that achieves few-shot adapta- tion through the dynamical interaction of coupled Neural Cellular Automata (NCAs) without computing analytical gradients during inference. MetaLearnNCA decomposes task adaptation into an Active- NCA, which executes task inference conditioned on a continuous 2D spatial memory grid termed the spatial program, and a learned Meta-NCA, which acts as a decentralized cellular optimizer by diffusing spatial error residuals across local neighborhoods to dynamically update this program. METALEARN- NCA is competitive against canonical meta-learners in-distribution (96.12% on Omniglot) with Out-Of- Distribution transfer gains on MNIST, KMNIST, and Fashion-MNIST transfer across 10 independent testing seeds across 1-, 5-, and 10-shot regimes (e.g., surpassing Prototypical Networks by +10.54% on 10-shot MNIST and a +3.87% gain on 10-shot Fashion-MNIST over FOMAML). Our results establish that robust, gradient-free learning-to-learn can emerge from decentralized cellular dynamics on non-von Neumann substrates.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08479
Recurrent neural networks typically compress information into a single vector-valued recurrent state, forcing short-term computation and long-term retention to share the same representation. Past extensions alleviate this bottleneck by increasing the memory capacity or separating timescales, but lack the combination of rapid neuron-level processing and longer-term retention found in biology. To that end, we introduce the Continuous Memory Machine (CMM), a recurrent architecture with matrix-valued short- and long-term memory states serving distinct functional roles. Building on the Continuous Thought Machine (CTM), the CMM's short-term memory tracks recent neural activity, with uniquely parameterized neuron-level models learning to use these activity patterns for computation. A persistent long-term memory stores information for later use, with a Transformer jointly updating both memory stores, providing an expressive bidirectional read--write mechanism such that each store can reorganize its own contents and both read from and write to the other. Across algorithmic, in-context learning, and recurrent reasoning tasks, the CMM outperforms a broad suite of baselines, exhibiting stronger generalization than prior memory-augmented networks while preserving the CTM's interpretable attention patterns. Code is available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07907
Modern cache replacement designs saturate because they operate within fixed representational structures, hand-crafted and heuristic based feature-engineered predictors, or offline imitation models that cannot generate new decision logic on their own. At the same time, replacement is shaped by the causal interaction of prefetching, thrashing, spatial locality, and access-type behavior, producing an enormous design space that is difficult to traverse manually. Prior approaches typically rely on heuristics, parameter tuning, or imitation of an offline optimal policy, capturing correlations rather than synthesizing new mechanisms. As a result, their performance gains often plateau and they overfit under dynamic workload conditions. CACHEFORGE is the first framework to evolve cache-replacement policies end-to-end by embedding a large language model inside a governed hardware-aware loop. In each iteration, the LLM proposes new C++ replacement logic, the policy is evaluated under a trace-based CRC-2 ChampSim simulator, and the framework enforces feasibility through reward shaping, structural checks, dynamic mutation, temperature scheduling, and cross-policy crossover. This closed-loop generation-evolution loop specifically designed for cache replacement policy enables the discovery of compact policies that satisfy hardware constraints while exploring algorithmic transformations beyond fixed predictor structures. Across SPEC CPU2006, CACHEFORGE outperforms all CRC-2 baselines. It improves the total hit rate by 27.36%, 19.69%, 13.72%, 13.15%, 11.83%, and 5.73% over MPPPB, ReD, Hawk-eye, SHiP++, LIME, and LRU, respectively. On memory-intensive workloads, it increases IPC by 10.15%, 7.89%, 6.34%, 3.64%, 3.12%, and 2.71% over LRU, MPPPB, LIME, ReD, SHiP++, and Hawkeye.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07668
Joint Models simultaneously model longitudinal and survival outcomes, leveraging patterns in patients' longitudinal trajectory to improve the prediction of survival outcomes. The classical parametric joint models, however, rely on fixed parametric assumptions, making them susceptible to bias under model misspecification and smaller sample sizes. We propose a deep joint model, DeepAJM, that does not require any parametric assumptions, while retaining a partially interpretable, per-longitudinal-outcome association structure. The joint model uses an encoder-decoder (sequence-to-sequence) architecture to learn the latent structure in patients' time-varying covariate trajectories. The model links the longitudinal processes to the survival processes through a learned interpretable association structure, in which each longitudinal output from the decoder gets remodulated by baseline covariates before it contributes to the risk scores from the survival head of the architecture. The model was evaluated on three datasets ( a cardiovascular-disease EHR cohort, a primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC2) dataset, and a simulated dataset) against a classical parametric joint model, TransformerJM, DA-LSTM and a Cox-based survival-only model. All models were assessed using C-index, integrated brier score (IBS), time-dependent AUROC, and time-dependent AUPRC. Our model achieved the best discrimination in terms of the C-index, time-dependent AUROC, and AUPRC across all datasets.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07388
Reinforcement learning (RL) is increasingly used for financial optimal-control problems when complex dynamics make analytical strategies difficult to obtain. There are financial mathematics literactures which provides many solved models whose equations and controls could evaluate and guide learning; we ask whether RL can exploit these results. We place a proximal policy optimisation (PPO) agent in an analytically solved continuous-time broker--trader game. PPO replaces the broker and chooses its trading speed while interacting with an informed trader and stochastic uninformed order flow. We derive a finite-step reward from the broker's continuous-time payoff and verify its discrete implementation through grid refinement and an exact one-step identity. With zero uninformed flow, a validation-selected PPO--FFNN approaches the reference action. With stochastic uninformed flow, the tested PPO--FFNN and PPO--LSTM remain inaccurate, although supervised learning confirms that their actors can represent the action. Monte Carlo diagnostics show that their critics do not reliably rank nearby actions; potential-based reward shaping also gives no reliable improvement. Under partial information, a causal certainty-equivalent controller based on the broker's observable history remains close to the reference, while PPO has larger errors and lower payoffs. Finally, we freeze the analytical policy and train PPO to adjust it after the execution cost changes. Halving the cost yields a repeatable improvement that closes \(2.22\%\) of the gap to the changed-cost reference. The analytical solution therefore provides both a benchmark for diagnosing RL and a useful starting policy for adaptation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03598
Deepfake detection in videos remains challenging, as manipulated content may appear visually consistent at the frame level while exhibiting subtle temporal inconsistencies. This paper introduces an interpretable deepfake detection framework that models spatially and temporally coherent facial features in video sequences. Unlike end-to-end deep models relying on implicit representations, the proposed approach explicitly encodes physically grounded forensic cues, enabling transparent analysis and improved multi-dataset generalization. The pipeline transforms videos into identity-consistent facial trajectories, segments them into fixed-length temporal windows, and represents each frame using 68 structured descriptors spanning four complementary domains: photometric, textural, geometric, and compression-based features. These descriptors provide a compact multi-domain representation of manipulation artifacts and are processed by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to capture temporal dependencies and subtle irregularities. Evaluation on four benchmark datasets, FaceForensics++, Celeb-DF v2, a curated subset of the DeepFake Detection Challenge (DFDC), and DeeperForensics, yields strong and consistent F1-scores of 98.0%, 91.0%, 97.6%, and 96.2%, respectively. The approach also demonstrated a good cross-dataset generalization, providing a robust and interpretable solution for video deepfake detection.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03380
Time series are produced continuously at enormous scale by industrial equipment, wearables, power grids, and clinical monitors, yet annotation remains manual, expensive, and expert-dependent. The binding constraint in large-scale time series analytics is therefore not data volume but label volume, and the question facing a practitioner is concrete: how many examples per class must be labeled before a classifier becomes usable? We study this question directly, in a regime where the label space is fixed and known in advance and the decision rule must be constructed from only K labeled examples per class. We propose Dual-Stream OSSE-LSTM, an episodic metric-learning framework that pairs an Omni-Scale CNN with Squeeze-and-Excitation recalibration, for multi-scale motif extraction without per-dataset kernel tuning, with a Bidirectional LSTM for global temporal context. The two streams are independently normalized and fused into a prototype-oriented embedding. Because decisions taken from a few labels must also be explainable, we introduce Counterfactual Integrated Gradients (C-IG), which attributes the prototype margin between target and opposing classes rather than an isolated classifier logit, and reuses the resulting maps as soft masks for test-time prototype refinement without updating the encoder. On 19 univariate UCR datasets, OSSE-LSTM attains the highest average accuracy and per-dataset win count at every support size, and its accuracy remains within a 0.36-point band (96.36-96.72%) across that range. Its weakest configuration still exceeding the best result any compared baseline achieves at any K (93.99%).
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02704
Automatic horizon tracking is a foundational task in 3D seismic interpretation. Most existing deep learning approaches formulate it as dense semantic segmentation, typically using U-Net-based architectures. The model produces a probability map over all pixels that must be post-processed to extract precise horizon coordinates, while horizon picks in time/depth must be converted into dense masks for training. Unpicked seismic traces are consequently treated as background, which can hinder convergence, and both pre- and post-processing can introduce errors into the final interpretation. Moreover, 2D segmentation models do not inherently capture inter-slice context, while 3D models are often computationally prohibitive. We instead formulate horizon tracking as a bounded coordinate regression problem, where the model directly predicts the time/depth coordinate of the target horizon at each lateral position. We propose a lightweight regression head compatible with any pretrained vision backbone, coupled with an LSTM module to model inter-slice context and produce a continuous horizon surface across the volume. A combination of L1 and L2 losses supervises predictions at valid horizon picks, while a geology-informed regularization enforces lateral continuity between successive traces. Under controlled experimental conditions, we evaluate four pretrained vision backbones under both segmentation and regression configurations on a seismic volume from New Zealand. The proposed approach consistently outperforms its segmentation counterparts quantitatively, using metrics including RMSE and PCC, and qualitatively, while also demonstrating greater robustness to increasing sparsity of training picks. Finally, we show that prediction variation across successive traces captures local variations in geological complexity, providing an automated quality control measure for downstream seismic interpretation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.02494
Long-term dependencies remain a major challenge for sequential decision-making in the field of AI: RNNs suffer from vanishing gradients and the limited expressivity of vector-based hidden states, whilst Transformer-based models are limited by the quadratic scaling of attention. Recent work has proposed tackling this problem with the Test-Time Training (TTT) framework, which stores episodic memories in the parameters of a neural network through gradient descent at both train and test-time. This approach has seen success in the domain of Natural Language Processing, however, to the best of our knowledge it has not yet been applied to the domain of Reinforcement Learning (RL), nor has there been a study analysing how this memory practically functions. In this paper, we study the potential of the TTT framework for offline RL by augmenting a Decision Transformer with TTT layers, dubbed the Decision Titan. We analyse performance and properties of the model in the X-Maze environment, an extension of T-Maze designed to test sequential memory, and investigate how the memory mechanism learns by visualising gate values over time. Our key findings are that Decision Titan can learn long-term dependencies with ranges 20x longer than the context window, generalises to lengths 1.7x the training data, but crucially temporal generalisation depends on the time embeddings used, and the ability to learn long-term dependencies depends on how the relevant information is encoded.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01513
In partially observable reinforcement learning (RL), a later observation can make stored information obsolete or change what it implies for the next decision. Memory architectures and benchmarks for RL mostly test retention, the ability to keep information unchanged until it is needed. We formalize two further requirements. Rewriting sets the decision-relevant content to a value independent of the old one, and experience fusion transforms the old content by a rule that a later observation specifies. For tasks built from such updates, we count the memory states that a solution needs, and several baselines reach their lowest success rates on compositions that need more states. We introduce ALER (Adaptive Learnable Experience Rewriting), an agent that pairs an LSTM with a slot memory. An independently addressed Gumbel-Softmax write that concentrates its weight on one slot overwrites that slot, and a learned gate fuses the retrieved content with the recurrent state before the policy and value heads. We also introduce Rune-Mazes, three environments in which rune observations invert, cancel, reset, or repeat updates of a hidden cue under vector and pixel observations. Against seven baselines, ALER reaches a success rate of at least $0.82$ in all sixteen Endless T-Maze configurations and at least $0.99$ on all five Rune T-Maze compositions, and it has the highest mean success rate on four-branch Rune Multi-Corridor with an Invert rune. On pixel-based Rune MiniGrid Memory, it has a higher mean success rate than PPO-LSTM in eight of ten configurations. Project page: this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.00592
Argument Mining (AM) is a critical NLP task that remains significantly under-resourced in Arabic. This paper presents $\testtt{STAR-Ar}$, a BERT-BiLSTM-CRF architecture for argument discourse detection and classification, as our system for Daleel 2026, the inaugural Arabic argument mining shared task. The task requires the identification and classification of argumentative discourse units (ADUs) in debate and editorial this http URL jointly model these two objectives as a token-level sequence labeling task using a BERT-BiLSTM-CRF architecture that combines contextual transformer embeddings with structural transition constraints to support accurate span detection. $\testtt{STAR-Ar}$ achieves an F1-score of 72.69 on validation and 73.7 on test data. Our domain-specific analysis shows that models trained exclusively on editorials underperform those trained on debates, a disparity we primarily attribute to the smaller size of the editorial dataset. The code for $\testtt{STAR-Ar}$ is available at ${\href{this https URL}{\faGithub~TTLab at Daleel 2026}}$
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39385
Robot policies are usually trained for one task, one body and one visual environment, and generalize poorly beyond these conditions. Whether a nervous system can instead supply the sensorimotor computation through its evolved wiring and biophysics remains unresolved. Here we embed a biophysically detailed Caenorhabditis elegans sensorimotor circuit - 136 multicompartment neurons with realistic morphologies and electrophysiological characteristics - as the dynamical core of a visuomotor policy. Only thin task-specific adapters are trained; the core's synaptic weights stay fixed while its membrane voltages evolve freely. Across different MetaWorld tasks the core matches or exceeds diffusion-policy, action-chunking-transformer and neural-circuit-policy baselines, and degrades less under visual perturbations. Replacing the core with generic network models such as MLP, LSTM, transformer or reservoir networks removes the advantage. Furthermore, on a real robotic arm the core withstands diverse visual perturbations that collapse the baselines. Our results suggest that visual robustness can be inherited from biophysically detailed circuit dynamics rather than learned by task-specific controllers.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39322
Intracortical motor decoders degrade across sessions because the set of recorded units changes and persisting units can alter how their firing relates to behavior. Most existing methods update network weights on each new session or rely on unlabeled activity, which does not directly reveal such changes. We present APST, an Association Profile-conditioned Set-Temporal transformer that adapts to new sessions with all network weights frozen. From a few labeled calibration trials, APST summarizes how each unit's firing relates to behavior in a four-dimensional association profile computed in closed form. The profiles condition a set-attention encoder that accepts any number and order of units, followed by a causal transformer for streaming decoding. On held-out DANDI688 sessions from two monkeys, APST reaches velocity $R^2$ of $0.78$ and $0.81$, versus $0.40$ and $0.58$ for a variant that uses neural activity alone, and matches or exceeds an RNN fine-tuned on the same trials. On FALCON private held-out evaluation, it attains $R^2$ of $0.65$, $0.42$, and $0.44$ on M1, M2, and H1.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39080
Passenger access doors are safety-critical subsystems in railway vehicles, yet detecting abnormal door behavior in real operation is challenging because faults are rare, diverse, and often unlabeled. This paper addresses railway door condition monitoring as a cycle-level unsupervised anomaly detection problem, where each complete opening-dwell-closing cycle is treated as a single monitoring unit. We propose the Temporal Cycle-Aware Attention Autoencoder with Cross-Signal Consistency (TCAA-CS), trained exclusively on nominal cycles. It combines a dual-stream encoder that processes continuous physical measurements (position, current, voltage) and binary logical states (door-closed, door-locked) through separate 1D-CNN branches, an LSTM encoder with temporal attention pooling, and a triple hybrid anomaly score fusing reconstruction error, latent-space deviation, and phase-aware cross-signal consistency. The consistency term helps identify cases where individual signals appear plausible but their inter-signal relationships become physically or logically inconsistent. On real industrial data from a passenger train in commercial service, TCAA-CS achieves 93.8% recall, 97.3% precision, and a 0.5% false-alarm rate, outperforming representative unsupervised baselines. System-level evaluation on an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Xavier supports the feasibility of real-time onboard deployment.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39035
Longitudinal medical imaging analysis is a cornerstone of modern medical practice and patient care. Deep learning applied to longitudinal imaging offers wide potential to enhance diagnosis and track disease progression by capturing spatial changes over time. With major advances in single-timepoint deep learning for imaging, there has been growing interest in longitudinal image analysis, given its increased clinical relevance, though technical challenges remain. Several recent innovations may lead to a new era of multi-timepoint image evaluation, yet the scientific landscape, recent progress, and areas of need remain under-characterized. To address this gap, we conducted a scoping review of deep learning methodologies applied to longitudinal medical imaging, yielding 102 studies published between 2018 and 2025. Neurological disorders (48%) and ophthalmic conditions (12%) were the most common clinical applications, with MRI serving as the predominant imaging modality (67%). Sequential feature modeling approaches combining convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with temporal models (LSTM/RNN) were the most frequent methodology (40%), followed by direct feature aggregation across timepoints (23%). Most studies targeted classification tasks (56%), while external validation was performed in only 24% of studies. Our findings highlight that deep learning-based longitudinal imaging analysis remains a promising field, though newer temporal architectures and larger datasets may improve success and clinical adoption of these tools.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08838
Every day, people continuously infer situational context and adjust the way they understand and remember the world. Context, signaled by the prefrontal cortex, is known to modulate working memory and episodic memory, but the algorithmic understanding of this modulation remains limited. Here, we train a recurrent neural network (RNN), augmented with an episodic memory buffer, to infer context using Bayesian inference as it continuously makes predictions of upcoming scenes while watching naturalistic movies. When the inferred context modulates the RNN's recurrent connectivity (the basis of working memory) in a low-rank manner, the model's activity patterns best match neural responses in human participants who watched the same movies during fMRI. Context also modulates episodic memory retrieval, such that the model retrieves memories based on not only content similarity but also context similarity. This is implemented as a key-value system with self-attention, designed to additionally encode context and retrieve context-congruent memories. The resulting model not only better resembles human brain representations but also learns to retrieve memories like humans much faster than a model without context modulation. Together, our findings suggest a computational mechanism by which context modulates information maintenance and long-term memory retrieval in naturalistic environments.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37791