LLM agents are increasingly used for open-ended, data-driven scientific discovery, yet most of them evaluate hypotheses pointwise, testing an empirical claim $h$ only against its complement $\neg h$. When evidence rejects $h$, the agent learns that one explanation is unlikely but not which alternative the evidence supports. To recover that alternative, we introduce Contrastive Discovery, which replaces the single hypothesis with a contrast set, a scientific question paired with mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive competing explanations. Each experiment is scored by how its evidence redistributes belief across the set, and the question is resolved when belief concentrates on one explanation. Because contrast sets change only the unit an agent proposes and scores, an existing agent can use them to re-evaluate evidence it has already collected or to guide its search. Across six domains, $89\%$ of the pointwise candidates with the largest belief shifts are rejections. On the same evidence, contrast sets resolve $73\%$ of these candidates to a specific alternative. When contrast sets guide search, the agent resolves $67\%$ more questions than pointwise surprisal under the same experiment budget. In a blinded study, $38$ human experts chose the same explanation on $78\%$ of resolved questions and on $82\%$ of questions where the pointwise agent rejected its hypothesis and stopped. Together, these results support explicit competing explanations as a way for discovery agents to resolve more scientific questions from the same evidence and validation budget.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14514
Deploying LLM-based analytics agents in enterprise settings requires evaluation frameworks that can reliably detect failures across complex, multi-tool workflows. We present a three-phase comparative study of three evaluation frameworks, each representing a distinct evaluation paradigm (trace-based LLM judging, text-only LLM judging with red-teaming, and deterministic heuristics), applied to two analytics agents in a controlled research setting using frozen execution traces. Phase 1 quantifies evaluation harness stability through repeated measurements, finding that 97% of configurations meet the stability threshold and that stability patterns are agent-independent. Phase 2 measures known risk detection on 72 ground-truth test cases, where the trace-based framework achieves the best precision-recall balance (F1=0.90) while text-only evaluation matches on recall but generates 5x more false alarms. Phase 3 evaluates unknown risk discovery, uncovering 24 novel failures with zero overlap between functional testing and security red-teaming. Our results demonstrate that (1) the information available to the evaluation harness determines evaluation quality, (2) functional and security evaluation are complementary, and (3) LLM-based evaluation harnesses surface subtle errors that human reviewers miss. We recommend a two-framework strategy: trace-based evaluation for functional assessment and adversarial red-teaming for security validation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14493
Business process automation runs the same Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) again and again on new inputs. Large Language Model (LLM) agents can follow an SOP written in natural language, but they call an LLM to choose every step of every run, which adds latency and cost at scale. We present ReTrace, which turns an SOP and a few logged agent runs into a reusable workflow in which code, not an LLM, selects the next step. The agent's reasoning, the explanation it writes with each tool call, often states why it took an action; the tool calls alone do not. ReTrace extracts the condition behind each step, merges these conditions across runs into a compact rule document, and generates an executable workflow from it. Only this last stage depends on the platform, so rule documents can be compiled for different orchestration platforms. On $79$ procedures from our production platform, ReTrace workflows reach $93.8\%$ completion, against $96.8\%$ for the agent, at $24\%$ lower cost per task. On $\tau^2$-Bench, they reach $75.8\%$ task success (agent: $80.6\%$) and run in $1.3$s instead of $170$s; three rounds of repair on training failures lift $k{=}2$ workflows from $66.7\%$ to $81.2\%$. On eight SOP-Bench procedures, ReTrace without repair trails few-shot generation ($80.6\%$ vs. $83.6\%$), but repair from labeled training failures lifts it to $87.8\%$ at $0.40$s per task, compared to $85.5\%$ in $46.6$s for the agent.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14492
Research ideation is iterative: researchers refine their ideas step by step based on feedback. Yet existing evaluations obscure this search process, making it difficult to understand how LLMs explore the space of research ideas and what limits their progress. We introduce Re-Search, which adapts the format of Twenty Questions to research ideation: given only the research problem of a published paper, a model must rediscover the paper's core idea by asking yes-or-no questions. Built from 200 ICML 2026 papers, Re-Search tracks how a model's idea evolves as it asks questions and receives binary oracle feedback, isolating ideation from execution. Across six recent LLMs, nearly all progress happens within the first 30 of 100 questions, which largely decide how the game ends; after that, most models plateau. Through controlled interventions on the candidate questions and the hypothesis space, we find that the bottleneck is generation, not judgment: models recognize a good idea or a good question when one is offered, but often cannot produce it on their own. We further analyze the ideation traces and find that models fail by either over-exploiting one direction or over-exploring too many. These findings point to concrete design principles for autoresearch systems: since models can judge candidates they cannot produce, enriching the search with externally sourced ideas and questions may be more effective than improving any single model's generation ability.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14487
In this paper, we present 1020 Group's submission to the WMT26 shared task on automated quality evaluation. Our system, Pterodactyl, was engineered specifically for subtasks 2 and 3, that is, segment-level quality score prediction and the detection of error-free segments. Pterodactyl is a highly customizable, ultra-low cost system optimized for binary classification in translation triage and data curation. It is based on an LLM-as-a-judge approach, with prompt engineering and model selection guided by ROC analysis. We also developed several variants of Pterodactyl that were specifically adapted for subtasks 3.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14480
Text-to-SQL systems over large pooled catalogs must first retrieve the tables a question needs. We compare against the published table recall of RASL, which uses Claude 3.5 models to extract keywords and select tables, on pooled BIRD, Spider, and Fiben catalogs. FERN (Feature-Engineered Ranking with No generative LLM) instead fuses three frozen retrievers into 100 candidates, describes each with up to 120 features, and reorders them with LightGBM rankers fitted once on BIRD's training questions. On Spider, where it was not fitted, its candidate pool alone reaches RASL's published recall at fifteen tables (98.0), and the ranker raises the share of questions with every gold table in the top five (complete@5) from 83.9% to 95.6%. At five tables, FERN's recall is within one point of RASL's on Spider (96.7 vs 97.0) and on BIRD with its evidence hints (96.6 vs 97.5), and 8.2 points below on BIRD without them (89.3). On 121 real BEAVER questions, without BEAVER fitting, its recall at fifteen (82.1) falls between two BEAVER-trained retrievers (80.8, 84.5), but its complete@15 is below both (49.6 vs 54.5 and 62.0). On Fiben, it falls far short at fifteen tables (54.2 vs 69.2, different question sets), although its recall at fifty is numerically close to RASL's question-only retrieval result (80.7 vs 79.4). On BIRD dev with evidence, non-retrieval features raise complete@5 by 7.7 points over retrieval signals alone. On BIRD dev, median latency is 208 ms per question on one A100, without hosted model calls.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14477
Formal world models can support planning, verification, and safety reasoning, but constructing them from open-ended natural-language situations is difficult, particularly in multi-agent settings where several formalizations may be plausible. We study whether five LLMs can generate such world models as partially observable stochastic games and whether mechanical validity is sufficient to establish that the resulting model faithfully represents the intended decision problem. We introduce a benchmark of 44 scenarios spanning game, situational, and cultural settings and evaluate generated world models along three dimensions: mechanical validity, reference-relative structural agreement, and semantic criteria. Across three empirical tracks, we analyze 410 first-pass generations. In the reference-backed game track, 134/135 generated world models pass a strict mechanical audit, yet mean permutation-invariant structural F1 is only 0.366, with just 28/134 mechanically valid models exactly matching the authored reference. In the cultural track, explicitly naming the country changes the generated structural representation for most LLMs while producing only small changes in automated semantic scores. These results show that executability is a necessary but insufficient criterion for LLM-generated world models: models that are mechanically valid can still differ substantially in the structure used by downstream neuro-symbolic reasoning and planning.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14419
Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by having a draft model propose multiple tokens for the target model to verify in one pass. The speedup is governed by the expected acceptance length (EAL), yet standard training objectives such as cross-entropy, KL divergence, and total variation focus only on distribution matching or single-step overlap. Recent studies instead propose block-level training objectives, aiming to optimize EAL directly. However, these objectives remain surrogates rather than exact formulations of EAL. For example, some average later acceptance over target-distributed continuations rather than the verification branches selected by accepted tokens, introducing a covariance gap that can reverse the gradient direction. We analyze this gap and derive REAL, a real EAL training loss that uses path weights for unbiased estimation and Rao-Blackwellization for variance reduction. In a controlled loss-level comparison with a Qwen3.6-35B-A3B target and a Domino drafter, REAL outperforms WTV, VSD, DBLast, and the static LK baseline on probabilistic serving acceptance length across 9 task subsets and 5 evaluation seeds. These gains require only a change to the training loss, with no modification to the drafter architecture or inference procedure, demonstrating the practicality of real EAL training. A reference implementation of the REAL loss is available at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14399
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly exhibit capabilities that resemble human Learning by Thinking (LbT), the acquisition of new insight through internal processes such as explanation and reasoning, without new external input. A systematic account of the cognitive mechanisms behind these capabilities, and of their limits, remains underdeveloped. This paper proposes a Cognitive LbT Framework that maps four mechanisms (Reflective Reasoning, Synthetic Memory Formation, Internal Simulation, and Conceptual Self-Organization) onto computational processes in LLMs. Drawing on representative methods, including chain-of-thought prompting, self-consistency, self-reflection, Tree-of-Thoughts search, Self-Instruct, and self-taught reasoning, the analysis argues that selected methods can functionally approximate aspects of these mechanisms and can improve performance on some tasks without additional labeled examples, although this does not always constitute durable learning in model parameters. For example, Self-Instruct generated approximately 52,000 instructions from 175 seed tasks and reported a 33% absolute improvement on Super-NaturalInstructions (Y. Wang et al., 2023). The same mechanisms also produce characteristic failures, including hallucination diffusion, model collapse, concept drift, and high computational cost. These failures are not isolated technical defects but follow from four structural asymmetries between LLMs and human cognition: the identity of generator and monitor, closed learning loops without external grounding, symbolic rather than sensorimotor simulation, and the cost of inference-time computation. The framework yields testable propositions about when LbT in LLMs should succeed or fail and offers a structured basis for designing more reliable autonomous learning systems.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14382
Rapidly evolving LLM architectures and heterogeneous mobile hardware make supporting new models in on-device inference engines a recurring and costly system challenge. Each model may require coordinated changes across conversion, graph construction, operators, and hardware backends. Existing coding agents often miss these cross-layer dependencies and struggle to diagnose failures across host--device execution paths. We present EngineAgent, an agentic system for automating on-device LLM model enablement. Its key insight is to separate reusable engine and hardware knowledge from model-specific implementation. Before enablement, EngineAgent constructs a hierarchy-aware engine index that captures engine abstraction layers and cross-layer dependencies, and pre-validates backend-specific build, execution, and debugging workflows using already supported models. For each new model, a builder uses this knowledge to coordinate cross-layer changes, while an auditor checks implementation completeness and drives iterative debugging through device-side validation. Across 12 tasks spanning three mobile LLMs and four engine--backend pairs on CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs, EngineAgent achieves 75% end-to-end success with either of two underlying LLMs, versus 33.3% for the strongest coding-agent baseline. Success requires compilation, on-device execution, and output-logit agreement with reference implementations. EngineAgent also reduces average per-task time and model-API cost relative to baselines using the same underlying LLMs.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14356
Users often complain that AI assistants such as ChatGPT are getting worse. Some versions do change, but human evaluation leaves a second possibility untested: the people judging may change. We separate the two on Chatbot Arena, a public platform where people compare answers from two anonymous large language models (LLMs) and pick the better one or say both are bad. We study 1,260,967 blind votes cast from May 2023 to August 2024 on pairs of models whose versions are fixed: dated vendor snapshots and models with fixed open weights. For the same pair of unchanged models, the share of votes saying "both are bad" rises by 1.71 percentage points a month on a mean of 17.1%, and by 1.91 points a month in 2024. In fourteen pairs observed often in both 2023 and 2024, it rose in every one, from 15.5% to 23.3%. The ranking does not trend: in 2024, the stronger model's share of decisive votes is flat. The rise holds within the same voter and on the same pair, and across arrival cohorts from their first recorded vote. It holds with prompt controls, in every major language, for dated vendor snapshots, open-weight models and models with stable answer length, and between interface changes. The drift is shared across models: month effects estimated from other models' pairs remove it from each model's own pairs. Platform-wide, the average model would be expected to score 78% against the 2023 average, yet the share of "both are bad" votes ended near where it began. The pattern fits a standard that follows the category's progress, so a product that stands still is judged as declining. Absolute verdicts on AI drifted while relative comparisons held steady, an evaluation drift that matters for LLM leaderboards and for the human feedback used to train models.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14333
LLM agents increasingly operate in long-horizon, verifier-rich environments, but current self-improvement mechanisms often write episode-derived lessons directly into memory, making local success an unreliable signal for reusable and safe knowledge. This paper addresses the core question of when an experience-derived behavioral update should be admitted into persistent agent state. We propose Falsification-Gated Self-Evolution (FGSE), a verifier-grounded framework that represents each candidate lesson as a structured hypothesis with an explicit precondition, behavior change, expected effect, and verifier. FGSE applies the hypothesis only in a temporary state, tests it on target-transfer, falsification, and archived-regression probes, and then commits, refines, or rejects it according to measured gain and risk. Across web, app, tool-use, and long-term memory benchmarks, FGSE achieves strong task performance, including 39.8 WebArena success rate, 78.8 AppWorld average completion, and 0.724/0.487 Pass$^1$ on $\tau$-Retail/$\tau$-Airline, while reducing falsification failures to 5.0%, regression damage to 1.3%, and harmful committed updates to 3.6%. These results suggest that testing memory updates as hypotheses supports more reliable long-term adaptation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14326
External memory enables LLM agents to improve from experience by distilling trajectories of past tasks into concise lessons for new tasks. However, memory can also lead to memory-induced degradation, where an agent fails on tasks it would solve without memory, often because it follows a lesson that is incorrect, or misapplies or misreads a valid one. This is because lessons are inferred from trajectories labeled only with task success or failure, yet are typically provided without the trajectories they came from, leaving the agent no way to check them. To address this, we introduce WikiTrace, an evidence-linked memory system designed to let agents check each lesson against its original trajectory. Specifically, motivated by the finding that a trajectory often still holds the evidence needed to catch an erroneous lesson, WikiTrace stores each lesson as a concise insight linked to a summary of why its trajectory succeeded or failed and to the raw trajectory itself. Then, on a new task, the agent starts from all insights and, whenever one lacks details needed to act, conflicts with another, or comes from a failed task, descends through its links with terminal tools to fill in missing details or correct the insight before acting. We validate WikiTrace on five agentic benchmarks, showing that it consistently outperforms existing memory approaches and a baseline given the same insights alone, while also reducing memory-induced degradation. Our code is available at this https URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14320
Evaluating candidate parallelization strategies through distributed training runs makes strategy selection prohibitively expensive at scale. Performance simulation offers a lower cost alternative, yet controlled comparisons among existing simulators remain difficult because they differ in the training stages they model and the workloads on which they are evaluated. We introduce LM-SimBench, a unified framework, profiling dataset, and benchmark for evaluating LLM training simulators. The framework decomposes simulation into functional stages from model compilation to schedule level aggregation, connecting execution representations and cost estimators to measurable evaluation targets. Following this framework, we profile 23 model settings from 10 dense and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) LLM families on an Ascend Neural Processing Unit (NPU) cluster. The resulting dataset contains 348 feasible configurations that jointly vary five parallelism dimensions and activation recomputation, with six views spanning configuration, rank, operator, event, and kernel granularity. Evaluations of representative training simulators demonstrate how LM-SimBench supports comparisons of prediction accuracy, assessment of configuration selection, and diagnosis of prediction errors. Matched GPU-NPU experiments validate the cross-platform applicability of the collection and evaluation protocol and demonstrate NPU-guided GPU configuration selection.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14285
We present an AI assistant for automating anti-corruption expertise of draft legislation based on the TRACE architecture, designed to screen bills for corruption risks: pinpoint provisions an expert would criticise and name the regulatory defect in each. The pipeline combines a deterministic parsing core, model-guided single-provision qualification, rule-based factor assignment, and external human oversight. To evaluate the assistant, we constructed an open benchmark from the published conclusions of Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NAZK), comprising 132 draft laws with 474 model-extracted findings. A system flag agrees with a finding when it targets a compatible provision and an LLM judge rates the risk as the same (strict) or partly the same (lenient). On 100 draft laws, the pipeline matches 0.28 of the findings within its top ten flags using the local Gemma 4 31B model, 0.30 with Sonnet 5.5, and 0.43-0.46 across all flags (non-blind; the frozen blind baseline achieves 0.21, 95% CI 0.16-0.26). Across all runs, most misses occur on provisions that the system located but qualified as a different risk, and none of the 32 legal-collision findings was matched. On 21 acts held out from tuning, the pipeline outperforms a monolithic prompt containing the full methodology under the strict measure, though not under the lenient one, and Opus 5.5 adds nothing over Sonnet. The reported scores reflect agreement with model-extracted findings rated by an LLM judge whose two access routes agree on 73 of 74 labels, without human expert validation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14244
Variability in syntactic structure and parsing ambiguity are fundamental aspects of natural language which modern LLMs have to learn to deal with proficiently. Previous "post-mortem" studies have shown that fully trained Transformers indeed approximate canonical parsing algorithms such as inside-outside, but little is established theoretically about how this is actually learned. Here, we make a first step towards addressing this by studying the learning dynamics in synthetic context-free grammars with variable parse tree topology. The stagewise learning curves are fully interpretable, in the sense that all of the loss stages a) can be computed analytically, and b) can be clearly associated to the representation of a hidden latent tree variable, which allows to lift ambiguity and utilize information from wider contexts. By probing representations, we visualize the emergence of inside-outside computation across depth and during training: while during early stages local (bigram/trigram) information is used and involves only a few initial layers, gradually the Transformer develops an encoder-decoder structure where the most abstract latent information is encoded in the middle, and the latter half of the network is used to progressively refine the final token prediction. This organization of computation is reminiscent of findings in real-world LLMs, and importantly applies here to a synthetic model which allows full analytical control of the data statistics, thus opening the door to theoretical progress.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14221
During extended wakefulness, mammalian neocortical networks experience localized periods of transient neuronal silence termed off-states. Here, we examine how analogous spatiotemporally concentrated disruptions affect sequential reasoning in autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs). Evaluating 250 paired derivations on the GSM8K benchmark across two 8B models (Qwen3-8B and LLaMA-3.1-8B-Instruct), we contrast clustered bursts of attention head masking against budget-matched diffuse i.i.d. dropout. Concentrated bursts induce substantial reasoning degradation: at onset parameter $\mathcal{B}=0.10$ (scheduling $\sim 5.7\%$ of vulnerable head-token volume), Qwen3-8B accuracy drops from $91.2\%$ under diffuse noise to $78.8\%$ under burst dropout ($\Delta = -12.4$ percentage points [pp], exact McNemar $p = 5.5 \times 10^{-6}$), while LLaMA-3.1-8B-Instruct drops from $84.0\%$ to $76.8\%$ ($\Delta = -7.2$ pp, $p = 0.0198$). Conversely, dispersing the identical cumulative budget uniformly across generation steps via stratified quintile matching yields substantially milder degradation (retaining $91.2\%$ in Qwen and $84.0\%$ in LLaMA). In an exploratory factorial dissociation ($N=100$), single-step dropout density is associated with an acute drop in a single schedule draw ($-10.0$ pp on Qwen, $p_{\text{holm}} = 0.0425$), while multi-token continuity exhibits an inconclusive compounding trend ($-7.0$ pp, $p_{\text{holm}} = 0.1892$). Error analysis reveals that Qwen failures reflect derivation errors within formatted responses (conditional accuracy drop of $-11.4$ pp), whereas in LLaMA $22.2\%$ of discordant losses lack a final answer format line (conditional gap narrows to $-5.0$ pp). These findings demonstrate that autoregressive reasoning chains are particularly vulnerable to concentrated structural disruptions, providing empirical benchmarks for fault tolerance in transformer architectures.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14209
Temporal-difference critics regress onto a bootstrapped target and usually need a target network. Lifted Bellman Linear Programming (LBLP) instead expresses the in-sample optimal values of offline RL as the solution to a linear program over the dataset. Its neural solver ALBUM relaxes the constraints into hinge penalties with fixed coefficients, and its guarantees are conditions on coefficients chosen in advance. We solve the same program with the method of multipliers: the coefficients become multipliers learned by dual ascent, with one penalty parameter $\rho$. In the convex case the fixed points are the KKT pairs of LBLP, and at every stationary point the applied constraint weights balance the objective exactly. The critic can serve a Gaussian actor, a flow actor, and best-of-N sampling, and for the Gaussian actor we propose an advantage-normalized DDPG+BC objective. With a single $Q$ and $V$ and no target network, our AL-LBLP with best-of-N reaches 60.1\% average success on the 50 state-based OGBench tasks. On long-horizon tasks, it reaches 81.5% on humanoidmaze-giant and 79.8% on antmaze-giant. It does not collapse up to batch size 8192.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14183
We introduce the cross-border (XB) fulfillment center (FC) Selection Model: a multi-stage optimization framework combining forecasting, doubly robust estimation, and linear programming to select optimal source FCs. For each source-destination shipping arc, the objective is to choose a subset of source-country FCs that minimize delivery time and cost while maximizing profit and shipped units under a fixed domestic network. We evaluate the model on three production-scale international shipping corridors for a large e-commerce company using 12 months of shipment data, employing both aggregate offline replay and shipment-level counterfactual nearest-neighbor matching. Across all shipping corridors, the XB FC Selection Model achieves 8.5-51.1% reductions in delivery time and 4.4-48.3% reductions in logistics cost relative to human expert-defined FC selection policies, with up to 6.5 percentage-point improvements in 5/5 target compliance (5 days, $5 USD). Pareto analysis shows the model consistently dominates single-objective ranking strategies and unconstrained LP on the efficiency-reallocation frontier, with all results statistically significant.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14174
Large language models (LLMs) achieve expert-level diagnostic accuracy in static evaluations, where the model receives a curated vignette or case report that already condenses the diagnostically relevant findings. Such evaluations measure inference over already selected evidence; the evaluations do not account for the inquiry used to obtain it. In clinical practice, however, diagnosis is an iterative process of inquiry. Clinicians take the patient's history, or anamnesis (Hx), through targeted questioning, examine the patient, and request and interpret tests, progressively narrowing the differential until they reach a final diagnosis (Dx). We introduce Hx2Dx ARENA, an interactive benchmark of 1'000 clinical cases from the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM). Each case is a simulated encounter that proceeds from initial presentation through history taking and physical examination to diagnostic workup. We evaluate open- and closed-source LLMs under multiple configurations. Performance varies considerably across models in the interactive setting, and every model loses diagnostic accuracy relative to the static setting, where the full case is presented upfront. The ability to ask the right questions accounts for much of both the gap between models and the loss of accuracy: diagnosis improves as questions become more targeted and build a more complete clinical picture. LLMs thus reason well once the relevant data are available but remain limited in hypothesis-driven information gathering, in knowing what to ask in order to know. Closing this gap is a prerequisite for their safe integration into real-world diagnostic workflows.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14122