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Timestral

2026-10-27 17:25:43
Adrien Petralia, Alexandre Gavaudan, Artjom Joosen, Etienne Goffinet, Richard Kurle, Yassine El Ouahidi, Yassir Bendou, Abdelaziz Bounhar, Abhijeet Somani, Aditi Kabra, Adrian Valente, Adrien Sad\'e, Ahmed Djermani, Alan Jeffares, Albert Jiang, Alberto Bietti, Aleksandr Timashov, Alexandre Cahill, Alexandre Laval, Alexandre Sablayrolles, Alexandros Sanchez Vassopoulos, Am\'elie H\'eliou, Amos You, Andr\'e Jonasson, Andreas F\"urst, Andrew Bai, Andrew Ehrenberg, Andrew Zhao, Andy Lo, Angele Lenglemetz, Anmol Agarwal, Antonia Calvi, Arata Suzuki, Arjun Majumdar, Arthur Fournier, Ashwani Kumar, Augustin Lombard, Avinash Sooriyarachchi, Aylin Guliz Akkus, Aysenur Karaduman, Baptiste Bout, Baptiste Rozi\`ere, Barna P\'asztor, Baudouin De Monicault, Benjamin Holzschuh, Benjamin Tibi, Benno Stein, Bernhard Stadlbauer, Bhargavi Bhaskar, Binbing Hou, B{\l}a\.zej Osi\'nski, Boris van Breugel, Camille Le Scao, Chaoran Yu, Charlotte Cronj\"ager, Chen-Yo Sun, Chris Bamford, Christian Wallenwein, Christophe Renaudin, Cl\'emence Lanfranchi, Colin Bonatti, Corentin Barreau, Corentin Sautier, Cristiana-Diana Diaconu, Cyprien Courtot, Daniel Lopes, Daniel Marczak, Darius Dabert, Diego de las Casas, Dominik Nuss, Dylan Rubini, Dzmitry Soupel, Elizaveta Demyanenko, Elliot Chane-Sane, Emilien Fugier, Emmanuel Gottlob, Erik Aas, Etienne Duchesne, Fabian Paischer, Fabian Schlager, Faruk Ahmed, Federico Baldassarre, F\'elix Rosseeuw, Filip Szatkowski, Filippo Vicentini, Florian Wiesner, Gabrielle Berrada, Ga\"etan Ecrepont, Gaspard Blanchet, Gaspard Donada-Vidal, Gaurav Mahajan, Gauthier Guinet, Genevieve Hayes, Georgii Novikov, Georgios Christoglou, Giada Pistilli, Gonzague de Carpentier, Graeme Nail, Guillaume Breton, Guillaume Kunsch, Guillaume Lample, Guillaume Martin, Guillaume Raille, Guillaume Richard, Guillem Simeon, Gunjan Dhanuka, Gunshi Gupta, Hamza Senhaji Rhazi, Han Zhou, H\'edi Hadiji, Himanshu Jaju, Hope McGovern, Hubert de Parseval, Hugo Cisneros, Hugo Germain, Hugo Thimonier, Hugo Venturini, Hyeonju Lee, Hyunwoo Oh, Iliass Lasri, Ilyas Oulkadda, Jacques Sun, Jan Ludziejewski, Jason Rute, Jean de Becdeli\`evre, Jean Quentin, Jean-Malo Delignon, Jessica Chudnovsky, Jianchao Li, Jie Zhang, Jin Bin Ou, Joachim Studnia, Joep Barmentlo, Johannes Brandstetter, John Harvill, Jonas Amar, Jonas Schweizer, Jonathan Roberts, Jos\'ephine Delas, Josselin Somerville, Jules Depersin, Julien Denize, Julien Tauran, Julien Verlaguet, Kartik Khandelwal, Khyathi Raghavi Chandu, Kilian Tep, Konstantin Mishchenko, Kris Szczepaniak, Kush Jain, Larissa Laich, Laura Calem, Laurence Aitchison, Laurent Callot, Laurent Fainsin, L\'eo Cotteleer, L\'eonard Blier, Lo\"ic Chadoutaud, Lo\"ick Chambon, Lorenzo Proietti, Louis Faucon, Louis Martin, Louis Serrano, Lu Li, Luc Boudier, Lucas Fernandes Martins, Lucas Mebille, Lucile Saulnier, Ludovic Ho Fuh, Luis Montero, {\L}ukasz Borchmann, Maarten Buyl, Malik Hassan Raza, Manon Chossegros, Marcin Mo\.zejko, Margaret Jennings, Markus Hennerbichler, Martin Alexandre, Mathieu Poir\'ee, Mathieu Schmitt, Mathilde Guillaumin, Mathis Felardos, Matthieu Andr\'e, Matthieu Dinot, Matthieu Futeral, Maurits Bleeker, Mauro Comi, Max Mynter, Maxim Berman, Maxime Darrin, Maxime Langelier, Maxime Louis, Maximilian Augustin, Maximilian M\"uller, Mehdi Bouaziz, Melina Jingting Laimon, Mert Unsal, Mia Chiquier, Michael Pilcer, Micha{\l} Pietruszka, Micha{\l} Zaj\k{a}c, Micka\"el Seznec, Mikhail Biriuchinskii, Minh-Quang Pham, Minwoo Kang, Mircea Lica, Morgane Rivi\`ere, Namit Katariya, Natasha {\O}rregaard Klingenbrunn, Nathan Bout, Nathan Grinsztajn, Nathan Simpson, Neeraj Aggarwal, Neil Ashton, Neil Mallinar, Nick B\"uhrer, Nicolas Moreau, Nicol\`o Lucchesi, Ola Mysiak, Oliver Leicht, Olivier Bousquet, Olivier Koch, Parag Jain, Patricia Wang, Patrick Blies, Patrick von Platen, Patryk Saffer, Paul Jacob, Paul Teiletche, Paul Wambergue, Paula Kurylowicz, Pavan Kumar Reddy, Pavel Kuksa, Philippe Formont, Philippe Pinel, Philom\`ene Chagniot, Pierre Glandon, Pierre Stock, Pierre-Andr\'e Savalle, Piotr Mi{\l}o\'s, Poojan Shah, Prateek Gupta, Pravesh Agrawal, Pui Ki Chan, Quentin Desreumaux, Quentin Selle, Quentin Torroba, Quentin Wargnier, Quercus Hernandez, Ram Ramrakhya, Randall Isenhour, Ranjit Parva, Rapha\"el Balouka, Rapha\"el Rialland, Raul Perez Pelaez, Reinhard Sonnleitner, Remi Delacourt, Rishi Shah, Rob Romijnders, Rohan Shah, Rohin Arora, Romain Sauvestre, Roman Soletskyi, Ronan Riochet, Rosalie Millner, Rupert Menneer, Sagar Vaze, Samuel Barry, Samuel Belkadi, Samuel Humeau, Samuele Papa, Sanchit Gandhi, Sandeep Cranganore, Sandeep Subramanian, Sarthak Mittal, Saskia Adaime, Scott Matthews, Sean Cha, Sebastian Kaltenbach, Seungjae Jung, Shashwat Verma, Sherif Waly, Shrimai Prabhumoye, Siddhant Waghjale, Siddharth Gandhi, Simon Lepage, Simon Sorg, Soham Ghosh, Sophie Marbach, Srijan Mishra, Stanislas Lange, Steve Hong, Sumukh Aithal, Szymon Antoniak, Tarun Kumar Vangani, Teddy Turquet, Teven Le Scao, Th\'eo Cachet, Thibaut Lavril, Thomas Chabal, Thomas Coste, Thomas Defard, Thomas Foubert, Thomas Loux, Thomas Robert, Thomas Wang, Tianyu Zhang, Tim Lawson, Timoth\'ee Lacroix, Timothy Wallis, Tobias Kronlachner, Tom Bewley, Tom Edwards, Tomas Hodan, Triantafyllos Afouras, Tuhin Das, Tyler Wang, Udit Saxena, Ulrick Bl\'e, Umar Jamil, Umberto Tomasini, Valentin Mac\'e, Van Phung, Venkata Reddy, Vibha Masti, Victor Jouault, Victor Letzelter, Victor Paltz, Victor Poucheret, Vincent Maladi\`ere, Vincent Pfister, Virgile Richard, Vladislav Bataev, Wassim Bouaziz, Wen Ding Li, William Flanagan, William Havard, William Marshall, Witold J\k{e}drzejewski, Xinghui Li, Xingran Guo, Xinyu Yang, Xuanyu Zhang, Yann Dreze, Yann Viegas, Yannic Neuhaus, Yassine Turki, Yessin Moakher, Yi He, Yihan Wang, Yimu Pan, Yuying Zhu, Yves Martin des Taillades, Zaccharie Ramzi, Zhenlin Xu, Zs\'ofia Cs\'ak\'any
arXiv_AI
         
Abstract

We introduce Timestral, a family of four time series foundation models for probabilistic forecasting, with 5M, 28M, 123M, and 209M parameters. Timestral sets a new state of the art on GIFT-Eval, TIME, and fev-bench, where Timestral-209M and Timestral-123M take the top two places on every metric. We achieve this with three ingredients: Decoupled Horizon Forecasting (DHF), which separates prediction tokens from the causally encoded context, so that longer horizons are trained without masking context and each observed value is both a forecast target and context for later forecasts; a covariate framework that natively supports known-future covariates within a causal architecture; and a two-stage pipeline that pretrains exclusively on a diverse, large-scale synthetic corpus before post-training on a mix of real and synthetic data with extended context. This report describes the model design and its benchmark results. Weights for all four models are available on Hugging Face and inference code on GitHub.

Abstract (translated)

URL

https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.37585

PDF

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.37585.pdf

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